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Re: Spitznagel Blasts 'Buy-And-Hold': "It's More Like Hope & Prayer" From Here 

By: Zimbler0 in POPE IV | Recommend this post (2)
Mon, 12 Mar 18 5:35 AM | 85 view(s)
Boardmark this board | POPES NEW and Improved Real Board 		Msg. 45477 of 47202
(This msg. is a reply to 45456 by Decomposed)
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Decomposed > Based on that reasoning and Dominion's stinky performance compared to Amazon and Google, you really ought to be recommending Amazon and Google today. Why aren't you?


By the way, De,
Do you remember what happened to Yahoo in 2000?
And all the other dot.com companies . . .

I don't really understand Amazon or Google's
business model . . . But I understand the power
company. They make a product I buy and pay them.
(Along with a lot of other people.)

Dominion Resources pays a dividend - meaning I have
two ways to make money from it. (Capital Gains, and
dividend checks.)

Looks like neither Google nor Amazon pays a dividend.

As you pointed out, D has a P/E ratio around 15.

AMZN (Amazon) P/E ratio is 256.
GOOG (Google) P/E ratio is 64.

I forget which year it was, but Dominion had sold a
subsidiary called East Midlands - I think over in England.
And D's P/E ratio went over 40 - which worried me. Compared
to Yahoo's P/E of well over 1,000 . . . Well, I found YHOO to
be terrifying in comparison.

So, to be truthful, no dividend and an obscenely
high P/E ratio says "Don't Buy This Zimmy!" (to me).

Zim.




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Mad Poet Strikes Again.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Spitznagel Blasts 'Buy-And-Hold': "It's More Like Hope & Prayer" From Here
By: Decomposed in POPE IV
Sun, 11 Mar 18 10:47 PM 		Msg. 45456 of 47202

Zimbler0:

Re: “Buying and Holding companies like Dominion Resources ('D') looks like a very good idea to me. I've owned my
Dominion Resources stock for about twenty years now.
And never regretted it for a second. The dividend checks just keep rolling in un-interrupted and it is worth a LOT more than I paid for it.”

Based on that reasoning and Dominion's stinky performance compared to Amazon and Google, you really ought to be recommending Amazon and Google today. Why aren't you?

I think it's obvious. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

From 1938 to 1991, the S&P occasionally had a P/E above 15, but never maintained it. About as much time was spent with a P/E below 9, with occasional drops below 7. Obviously, buying when the P/E was above 15 was a poor move during those 53 years.

Since 1991, the pattern has changed and the S&P's PE has rarely fallen BELOW 15.

The question is, what changed and is it a permanent new reality?

I have my thoughts on that question, but before I express them, I'd be curious to know yours.

BTW, Dominion's P/E is currently 15.45.

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