November 14, 2016
Trump’s Pivot to Asia
The president-elect will need to renounce his campaign rhetoric to preserve stability in Asia.
By MICHAEL AUSLIN
wsj.com
Within 48 hours of being elected president of the United States, Donald Trump was in touch with America’s two main allies in Asia. A phone call from South Korean President Park Geun-hye and an agreement to meet Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in New York this week began the transition from campaigning to governing, laying the groundwork for policies that will come into effect in January. Still, this cooperative start to Mr. Trump’s Asia policy doesn’t erase the many problems he will face once inaugurated.
While not unexpected, the president-elect’s willingness to talk with both Ms. Park and Mr. Abe marks a change from his campaign trail rhetoric. He shocked friends and adversaries alike by openly questioning the value of key regional alliances, threatening to walk away from them if Tokyo and Seoul failed to pay more for the privilege of hosting U.S. forces for their own defense. Mr. Trump even indicated he might encourage both countries to pursue an independent nuclear capability, thereby ending the decades-long American guarantee of extended deterrence.
Mr. Trump also mused about a potential trade war in Asia, punishing both China and Japan for their supposed currency manipulation and unfair trading practices. His adamant rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) showed disregard for years of negotiations and the promise of a new liberal trade architecture in the Asia-Pacific.
These campaign specifics and his general “America First” policy raised alarm bells among U.S. allies and engendered mixed emotions in Beijing, which welcomed his embryonic distancing from Japan and South Korea but worried about economic tension.
Mr. Trump’s policy musings, however, were not the first signs of danger in Asia. Despite the Obama administration’s enthusiastic Asia pivot, relations with China worsened over the past few years. Beijing has built and militarized islands in contested waters of the South China Sea and lately drawn both the Philippines and Malaysia closer to its embrace.
As for North Korea, the Obama policy of “strategic restraint” has resulted only in an intensification of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. This has led South Korean thinkers and media to call for either the reintroduction of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons or the pursuit of an indigenous nuclear program.
Mr. Obama’s failure to make TPP a legislative priority before leaving office has also soured relations with other signatories, including Japan, whose lower house of the Diet ratified the treaty the day after Mr. Trump’s victory.
In his conversation with Ms. Park, Korean sources say, Mr. Trump reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to South Korea. That will be welcome news to those worried about how North Korea’s Kim Jong-un would take advantage of a distancing between the allies. Mr. Trump should also push for the timely introduction of the Thaad anti-missile system, as a signal for Pyongyang to reconsider any provocations it may have planned.
As for Japan, Mr. Trump seems to have a longtime antipathy toward the country. It was thus a bold move for Mr. Abe to request a meeting so soon, and to have been willing to fly to the U.S. ahead of the APEC summit to meet the president-elect. Given that Mr. Abe is now likely to lead Japan through 2021, thanks to a change in the rules of the Liberal Democratic Party, the relationship between the two men will be particularly important to U.S. policy in Asia.
Mr. Abe needs to sell Mr. Trump on the value of the alliance, and on why the investments made by both sides are a low-cost means of ensuring Asia’s stability. He can do so by pointing out how much more Tokyo is willing to do under his leadership, including new defense cooperation with Southeast Asian nations, deepening alliance cooperation, revamping Japan’s laws on collective self-defense, and increasing the military’s budget.
Mr. Trump meanwhile will have to convince Asia that under his leadership America will not retreat from the region. He will need to create credible policies to stabilize the South China Sea, or face the de facto Chinese control of its strategic waterways. Similarly, South Korea and possibly Japan will not wait another eight years for a clear American policy to remove the North Korean nuclear threat.
Perhaps above all, Mr. Trump will have to determine how to deal with a China facing a slowing economy and possible internal turmoil from President Xi Jinping’s moves to consolidate his power.
As the risks to Asia’s future grow, firm personal relationships with America’s key allies are crucial to making the difficult policy choices that lie ahead. Any indication that Mr. Trump will carry through his campaign rhetoric will cause a crisis in existing alliances. If, on the other hand, Mr. Trump takes advantage of the outreach from Japan and South Korea, he’ll have a better chance of building on Mr. Obama’s achievements and fixing his failures.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-pivot-to-asia-1479145312
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