Forum Home | Log in | Signup | My Page | Rules | FAQ | Boards | Members | Search
« POPE IV Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: Ladies and gents: Tonight, Trump won the Republican nomination 

By: Decomposed in POPE IV | Recommend this post (2)
Wed, 27 Apr 16 6:02 PM | 93 view(s)
Boardmark this board | POPES NEW and Improved Real Board 		Msg. 06004 of 47202
(This msg. is a reply to 06001 by capt_nemo)
Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

re: "In short, it is now a mathematical certainty that Trump will win the convention on the first ballot, unless something happens to undermine his campaign."

Nonsense. "Polling ahead" in California isn't the same as winning California.

California is worth 170 delegates and is winner take all. As the author states, Trump should win the nomination with 100 delegates to spare - but his conclusion is only valid if California goes as planned. If it doesn't, odds are very good that Trump will not reach 1237.

I'm not saying he won't get the nomination. He probably will. I just hate sloppy logic.

Maybe this is a personality flaw in me. It's what got me kicked off of the Triple-Fart board, after all. clo couldn't stand it that *EVERYTHING* she and her regulars post was (and is) fraught with serious errors that I couldn't help but point out. She eventually kicked me out, not because I'd violated any of her board's rules, but because she found me "annoying."

She doesn't find zzfart annoying, but she does me. Go figure. zzfart is the kind of guy she prefers to keep. A man inferior to herself is hard to find.
 




Avatar

Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months

» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Ladies and gents: Tonight, Trump won the Republican nomination
By: capt_nemo in POPE IV
Wed, 27 Apr 16 10:39 AM 		Msg. 06001 of 47202

Trump is currently sitting at 950 delegates after tonight's landslide.

[link to www.realclearpolitics.com]

In addition, Trump has won anywhere from 66-100% of PA's unbound delegates thanks to Paul Manafort's groundgame, putting his total delegate count at around 1000 after tonight.

Trump needs 1237 delegates to win on a first ballot at the convention, so he needs somewhere around 237 more than he has presently.

Trump is polling ahead in California. We can expect him to take that winner take all state, giving him around 170 delegates.

Trump is also polling ahead in Indiana, where he can win another 57 delegates. That gives him about 230 delegates.

But in addition to those states, there's 8 others that need to vote, with a total delegate count of about 280. Let's say that Trump win's 50% of these delegates conservatively, which is below the actual percentage of delegates he's been pulling from states. So 140. That would give him 370 delegates, or over 100 more than needed to win the convention.

In short, it is now a mathematical certainty that Trump will win the convention on the first ballot, unless something happens to undermine his campaign. Even if he loses Indiana to Kasich, he will win the convention with those other 8 states.

Ladies and gents, Trump won the nomination tonight. Get ready for Clinton v Trump, 2016. Stock up on beer now, because this is going to the YUUUUGE.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message3158965/pg1

« POPE IV Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next