Others are beginning to come around to my viewpoint that Trump does not need to secure 1,237 delegates heading into the convention.
My math has Trump securing the nomination with 1,224 but the real number is far less than that.
Although I agree with the widespread analysis that Trump needs to win on the first ballot or he does not win at all, I strongly disagree with the assumption Trump needs to go to the convention with 1,237 in hand to win.
Tonight Politico reports the “GOP elite whisper about a lower threshold for the front-runner to clinch the nomination.”
Please consider Trump’s real magic number is less than 1,237.
Even before Donald Trump’s big win in New York on Tuesday, the conversations among party officials and high-level operatives about a contested Republican convention were already shifting dramatically.
The magic number of delegates for Trump to clinch the nomination on the first ballot, likely to be his best and perhaps only chance to do so, remains 1,237. But there are now whispers that the real number of delegates Trump must win by June 7, when the final contests take place, might be lower.
“The closer he gets to 1,237, even if he doesn’t get all the way there by the final primaries, the more likely he cobbles it together,” said one Republican National Committee member attending the quarterly party meetings in Florida, where sideline conversations are focused on this subject. “There are plenty of delegates that are unbound on first ballot, you’ve just got to go find them.”
When the convention opens in Cleveland in
https://mishtalk.com/2016/04/20/whats-trumps-real-magic-number-hint-its-not-1237/
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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