I've been thinking a quite a bit about Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. If it was hijacked, there had to be a reason. To ransom the hostages? No. Most of the passengers were Chinese, and I don't think the Chinese would pay.
I think the hijackers were after the plane.
A number of articles I've read referred to it as a Boeing 777-200, but it was actually the 200's big brother, the Boeing 777-200ER. What's so special about the 200ER? This:A 777-200 has a range of 5,240 nautical miles. A 777-200ER has a range of 7,725 nautical miles. That additional 2,500 miles must have mattered in the decision to steal that specific plane. 777-200ERs don't exactly grow on trees, after all.
The United States has more enemies these days than anyone else, so I'm going to be paranoid for a few minutes and assume that WE are the target. Specifically, Honolulu, since it's the only significant U.S. city that's reachable from way over there.
The distance from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (which, I realize, is not plane's exact location) to Honolulu, Hawaii, is 5,924 nautical miles. A 777-200 would not be able to bomb Honolulu if it left from Kuala Lumpur, but a 777-200ER could.
From North Korea to Honolulu is 3,997 nautical miles. So a 777-200ER isn't needed. A lesser plane could fly the distance. More importantly, North Korea reportedly owns some pretty decent missiles. If it wants to bomb Hawaii, I don't think it needs to steal an airplane.
I also don't think that North Korea is angry enough right now to attack the United States. (Then again, its leader IS a nutcase.)
From Karachi, Pakistan to Honolulu is 7,004 nautical miles. Pakistan is a big country, and I picked Karachi at random, so the actual range could be considerably more or less than this. My point, though, is that a 777-200 would probably be insufficient if, for instance, the Taliban wanted to attack the United States. But a 777-200ER could do the job.
Lastly, from Tehran, Iran to Honolulu the distance is 7,012 nautical miles. Here again, a 777-200ER would be needed to cover the distance. However, the flight would involve crossing several other countries' airspace, and I don't see that happening. Moreover, getting the plane TO Iran would be really difficult due to airspace issues, especially since it was last seen heading the wrong way. Iran can be ruled out.
On this basis, I'm changing my best guess for where the plane is now located to Pakistan, not North Korea. Pakistani extremists certainly have reason to feel that such an attack is justified. After all, we killed bin Laden with an attack on THEIR country. That suggests that the Taliban, or Al Qaeda, with cooperation from the Pakistani government, are responsible for the hijacking and currently have the plane.
It's always possible that some other country is the intended target. Malaysia to London is 5,698 nautical miles, but there's just no way anyone in the Malaysian part of the world could target London with an airplane. All of Europe would need to be crossed... it looks to me like about ten countries. The plane would be downed long before it got to England.
Kuala Lumpur to Australia? Such a big plane wouldn't be needed. From Malaysia, Sydney is the farthest major Australian city, and it's only 3,568 nautical miles.
So I'm sticking with Honolulu. That's the target. It best explains why a Boeing 777-200ER was needed by SOMEONE in that part of the world.
I don't think I'd want to be living in Hawaii right now. Not until that plane is found.
For that matter... when is Obama's next Hawaiian vacation? Could there be a more tempting time for an enemy of the United States to nuke a Hawaiian island???
A final point: The 777-200ER has a range of 7,725 nautical miles AS IT IS CURRENTLY OUTFITTED. If the plane were remodeled... if the passenger or baggage compartments were retrofitted to be additional fuel tanks... the plane could doubtless fly much further. I expect it would then be feasible to target Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle or Portland. But given that this would take a lot of work and that an attack on those cities would not have the emotional impact that an attack on Hawaii while the President is there would, I think Hawaii is the most obvious target.
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