Dispatch: Turkish-Iranian Coordination on Syria and the Saudi Arabian Factor
August 17, 2011 | 2036 GMT
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110817-dispatch-turkish-iranian-coordination-syria-and-saudi-arabian-factor
Analyst Kamran Bokhari examines the triangular dynamic between Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia as related to the current unrest in Syria.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
There is an interesting dynamic emerging in the Middle East when it comes to the issue of managing the Syrian crisis. Turkey is trying to take the lead. Iran has a stake and they will be working with Turkey, but then there is also Saudi Arabia. And the Saudi-Iranian rivalry will upset any efforts on the part of the Turks to move forward with managing the Syrian crisis.
Turkey is trying to take the lead in the region in terms of trying to manage the Syrian crisis, but just as was the case in Iraq, the Turks find themselves running into the Iranians in Syria as well. Turkey doesn’t have a presence beyond diplomacy in the Levantine Arab state, whereas the Islamic Republic of Iran has been present in the country and in military terms for many, many years. What that means is that Turkey, in its efforts to take the lead in managing the Syrian unrest, is bound to have to cooperate with Iran in order to be able to achieve its goals.
Iran too would like to be able to coordinate with Turkey in order to secure its own interests that are being threatened with the unrest that is challenging the regime of President Bashar al Assad. The Iranians would like to have a seat at the table and they are also worried that if they align too closely with Damascus in this crisis, then they could end up being the losers should the regime be ousted.
Now it’s easy for Turkey and Iran to cooperate because they have their mutual interests and their relationship is as such that they can actually work with one another. But the problem is that Turkey and Iran aren’t the only stakeholders in Syria. In fact, Saudi Arabia is perhaps the major Arab player in the region with a significant amount of stake in what happens in the Levant and particularly in Syria. This is going to complicate the situation in which regional players try to get together in order to manage the fallout from the Syrian crisis, and therefore Turkey will end up trying to have to balance between Riyadh and Tehran as it tries to sort out the mess in Damascus.
Given its limitations, Turkey will need to somehow work with Iran in terms of solving the Syrian crisis. Likewise, it’s in the interest of Iran to work with Syria but the problem is that we have Saudi Arabia, also a major player in the stakeholder in what happens in the Levant, and therefore we are going to see all sorts of complications stemming from the Iranian Saudi rivalry.
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