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Stratfor Dispatch: Pakistan Secures Interests in the Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
July 21, 2011 | 1840 GMT
Analyst Kamran Bokhari examines Pakistan’s efforts to balance between Saudi Arabia and Iran to secure its interests in a post-NATO Afghanistan, and the resulting implications for the Middle East region.
Editor’s Note: Transcripts are generated using speech-recognition technology. Therefore, STRATFOR cannot guarantee their complete accuracy.
Saudi media sources are reporting that Pakistan will be playing a mediatory role between the Kingdom and its regional foe, Iran. This comes at a time when both Iran and Saudi Arabia are seeing an escalation in their geopolitical struggle in the Persian Gulf and at the same time the issue of Afghanistan is picking up steam.
Obviously Pakistan has influence both in Iran and more so with Saudi Arabia, but in this particular case, it’s less of a mediation and more about Pakistan trying to balance between Saudi Arabia as an ally and a strong neighbor, i.e. Iran, especially as Pakistani interests in Afghanistan are beginning to take a more critical evolution. Pakistan is not doing this out of any altruistic sentiment—it definitely has hardcore interests at stake. And the interest here is that Pakistan will need to be able to settle with Iran in terms of a post-NATO Afghanistan. And when Pakistan does that, it wants to be sure that its Saudi ally is on board with any deal. In other words, Pakistan is trying to balance between the need to engage Iran on Afghanistan, and Iran is a neighbor that shares a border with Pakistan, and at the same time not upset Saudi Arabia, because Saudi Arabia and Iran are locked into this fierce struggle over the balance of power in the region, particularly in the Persian Gulf. But it spills over into the outlying areas, particularly South Asia.
At a time when U.S. forces are trying to leave both Afghanistan and Iraq, there is a need to settle the situation in both countries. On one hand we have Pakistan and Iran trying to position themselves for a post-NATO Afghanistan and on the other hand there is Saudi Arabia and Iran trying to position itself in terms of Iraq and the wider Persian Gulf region. Ultimately, the Pakistanis would like to be able to bring the Saudi-Iranian tensions to a point where they don’t disrupt Pakistani interests in Afghanistan. But, it’s unclear to what degree the Pakistanis would be successful, if at all. And definitely this involvement of the Pakistanis has implications for Saudi-Iranian rivalry across the Persian Gulf.
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