Stratfor ignores Obama's political motivation. I much prefer this analysis (http://www.hyscience.com/archives/2011/06/afghanistan_the.php) and agree about John Hannah's take:
Bing West, Pete Hoekstra, VDH, John Yoo, John Hannah, Jamie Fly, Cliff May, Victor Davis Hanson, and more, all weigh-in on Barack Obama's Afghanistan speech.
I believe one of the most pertinent takes to be that of John Hannah, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was national-security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney (emphasis added):
[...] Anyone else feel like they need a shower? The stench of politics was all over this speech. From start to finish, the president's timetable for troop withdrawal appears driven by the need to appease his liberal base and secure reelection in November 2012. It was a more or less complete dissing of the recommendation of his field commander -- whose strategy is largely responsible for the progress the president claimed -- as well as the rest of the country's senior military leadership. It's hard to find any serious analyst ready to take the bet that Obama is making, i.e., that Afghan forces will be capable in 2012 of preserving the fragile gains won by the U.S. surge, or in 2014 of securing the entire country on their own. Of course, the president's explicit timetable worsens the odds even further, sending an unambiguous signal that America's march to the exits has begun, irrespective of the situation on the ground. Our Afghan friends -- the very forces we expect to fill the void created by our drawdown -- will be badly demoralized by what they heard, while our enemies in the Taliban and al-Qaeda will be rightly buoyed, convinced that they can wait us out and achieve their long-term goal of retaking power.
[...] A commander-in-chief who prefers to speak of "ending wars responsibly" rather than achieving victory has just taken an enormously risky gamble on a national-security issue that he himself once identified as vital to American interests. We should all pray that his luck holds out.
Take the time to read all the takes ( http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/270306/afghanistan-way-forward-nro-symposium ).
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