#5: Coronavirus spread
This theory holds that North Korea, which has claimed to have no coronavirus victims, in fact has so many that Kim and company, shocked at how badly things were going, decided on their version of a lockdown.
#4: Kim’s own health
Kim Jong Un, this theory goes, is sick, or even dead, perhaps from complications of the new coronavirus.
#3: Makeover for Kim
Kim Jong Un is trying to change his image, blur the dynastic lines and turn himself into his own man. That’s a theory that the French wire service Agence France Presse likes. In a Thursday dispatch it quotes a couple of Pyongyang watchers as supporting it.
“Kim Jong Un wants to break away from the past, as well as the North’s traditional cult of personality,” said one of them, Ahn Chan-il, described as a North Korean defector and a researcher in Seoul. “His message is that Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung’s times are now over,” he told AFP.
#2: Coup d’etat
Kim Jong Un, dead or alive, is out – purged in a coup d’etat – but those in charge didn’t have suffficient confidence in their success, or in the security of their plotting, to plan in advance how to explain this to the North Korean public and the rest of the world. We must wait and see.
#1: Hiding out
Kim Jong Un noticed that his erstwhile pal Donald Trump had pretty much lost his number one reelection platform plank, a thriving economy; was not going to get to face his favored opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders; and was becoming an American laughing stock for his 5 o’clock follies performances holding forth on the virus.
A desperate Trump, therefore, Kim could see, was in dire need of accomplishments.
Kim also couldn’t help noticing the American drone-killing of General Qassem Soleimani of Iran on January 3, followed by increasingly tough Trump administration talk (right up through Wednesday) about North Korea.
Never forget that a North Korean, high or low, can’t be too paranoid for his own good. The national motto might just as well be, “They are out to get you!”
Is Kim Jong Un incapacitated or dead from Coronavirus? The question has to be asked after the North Korean dictator failed to appear – as he and his predecessor have always done – at the most important holiday commemoration in the North Korean calendar, one honoring his grandfather, the founder of the North Korean state. Lauren Vella reports for The Hill:
Since his death, Kim Il Sung has been elevated to near-divine status, and it is only through his descent from the demi-god that Kim Jong Un gained and holds onto power. Skipping the most prominent ceremony honoring his grandfather is not something lightly done.
Kim Jong Un is very obese, making him at risk for Coronavirus. There have been previous reports of his ill health related to obesity, but there is no solid information on that point. North Korea denies that it is affected by coronavirus, but few outsiders accept that as true. The overall poor state of health and healthcare, as well as the poverty and crowded living quarters of most of the population make it an ideal breeding ground.
With North Korea’s principal patron, China, now widely blamed or the pandemic, having its leader suffer from it would be awkward.
President Trump prominently offered moral support as well as unspecified medical help when his friend Boris Johnson successfully coped with Coronavirus. I have to wonder if there might be some private help – shipment of drugs, ventilators, or other medical assistance – sent from the US to Pyongyang IF KJU needs help. Saving his life could alter the course of US-North Korea relations.
This is all speculation, of course. North Korea’s lack of transparency makes it impossible to know, but we can say with confidence that something important prevented KJI from honoring his grandfather.
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