March 31, 2020
Model Projects When the Coronavirus Will Peak in Each State
by Hannah Bleau
Breitbart.com
The United States, as a whole, is roughly two weeks away from reaching the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, but the peaks for individual states will vary, with most occurring over the next four weeks, according to projections from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
When it comes to the arrival of the coronavirus, not all states are facing the same timeline. Some states, like New York and Louisiana, have quickly become epicenters of the virus in the United States and, as a result, will reach a resource peak weeks sooner than states like Kentucky and Missouri, which are not expected to reach their highest demand until the second week of May. The various projections, based on peak hospital resource demand caused by the virus, could explain why some governors are taking more aggressive, imminent actions in their response to the pandemic.
Here are the projected peaks for all 50 states, plus D.C., per the IHME model. The model takes into consideration the number of beds needed, as well as ventilators.
New York, for example, is expected to hit its resource peak April 9. The current model, at the time of this publication, estimates a bed shortage of 60,610 and 9,055 ventilators needed. A state like Kentucky, however, is not expected to reach its peak until May 12. It shows the state having a surplus of beds and 288 ventilators needed.
Here is the resource peak for each state. Resource details can be found here:
1. Vermont: April 9
2. New York: April 9
3. New Jersey: April 9
4. Michigan: April 10
5. Connecticut: April 10
6. Louisiana: April 10
7. Idaho: April 12
8. Massachusetts: April 14
9. Iowa: April 15
10. Pennsylvania: April 15
11. Illinois: April 16
12. Oklahoma: April 17
13. Indiana: April 17
14. Colorado: April 17
15. Washington, DC: April 18
16. Rhode Island: April 19
17. Ohio: April 19
18. Delaware: April 20
19. Alabama: April 20
20. Arkansas: April 20
21. Nevada: April 20
22. Minnesota: April 21
23. Georgia: April 22
24. Mississippi: April 22
25. North Carolina: April 22
26. Arizona: April 24
27. South Carolina: April 24
28. Washington: April 24
29. Maine: April 25
30. Tennessee: April 26
31. California: April 26
32. Wisconsin: April 26
33. Utah: April 27
34. Kansas: April 28
35. New Hampshire: April 30
36. New Mexico: April 30
37. Alaska: April 30
38. Hawaii: April 30
39. Nebraska: April 30
40. Montana: April 30
41. West Virginia: May 1
42. North Dakota: May 1
43. South Dakota: May 1
44. Wyoming: May 1
45. Texas: May 2
46. Oregon: May 3
47. Florida: May 3
48. Missouri: May 11
49. Kentucky: May 12
50. Maryland: May 14
51. Virginia: May 17
The model shows April 14 as the peak for the United States as a whole. However, it notes that the projections are contingent on the continuation of “strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.”
President Trump officially extended the “Slow the Spread” coronavirus guidelines to April 30 during a press conference over the weekend.
“Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won, that would be the greatest loss of all,” Trump, who had remained optimistic on reopening the economy on Easter, said during the press conference in the Rose Garden.
“The better you do the faster this whole nightmare will end, therefore we will extend our guidelines to April 30 to slow the spread,” he continued, predicting that the country will be “well on our way to recovering” by June 1.
http://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/31/model-projects-when-the-coronavirus-will-peak-in-each-state/
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