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Re: COVID-19 Mortality Rate 

By: micro in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (2)
Sun, 22 Mar 20 6:40 PM | 29 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 56355 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 56352 by Decomposed)
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De
you said "The flaw in this is that some of the 26,909 have yet to die..."

The flaw in this statement is that until they actually do die, there will be more numbers of cases so that the ratio is likely to remain very close.... The time you spend wiaitng on others to die also has MORE cases being added.

You cannot raise one number and not the other...




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The above is a reply to the following message:
COVID-19 Mortality Rate
By: Decomposed in POPE 5
Sun, 22 Mar 20 6:22 PM 		Msg. 56352 of 62138



The media is pushing a claim today that the U.S. mortality rate from this disease has fallen from 4% to 1.2% in the last two weeks. Extreme, unsupported statements like this always make me go "Hmmmmm" and prompt me to look a little deeper.

Today's stats are shown above.

What the media geniuses have done is to divide the number of deaths (349) by the total number of cases (26,909) and multiply by 100, yielding 1.2 (actually 1.3) percent. The flaw in this is that some of the 26,909 have yet to die... and we don't know how many. Therefore, it is incorrect to use it as the denominator in the calculation. In fact, this tells us that the only reason for the mortality rate to have fallen dramatically is that the number of cases has RISEN dramatically. It's not good news; it's BAD news.

A more defensible calculation would divide the number of deaths by the number of cases that have been resolved - deaths (349) plus total recovered (178 ). This reveals a sinister portent of our approaching doom: SIXTY SIX PERCENT MORTALITY. Yup. Fully two-thirds of all U.S. COVID-19 patients who have borne the disease through to a resolution ultimately died of it. If ever there was an appropriate place for my IGL acronym, this is it. Good thing that what I've just done is flawed too.

Most who catch the SARS-CoV-2 virus are probably never diagnosed. They have few or no symptoms; they tough it out for two weeks; it goes away. We have no idea how many such people there are, but if they could be counted, the total number of cases resolved would increase dramatically, thereby lowering the mortality rate in my calculation to something less disturbing.

I will only say this: The mortality rate isn't 66%. But neither is it 1.2%.

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