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Re: COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?

By: micro in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 07 Mar 20 3:21 AM | 22 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 54519 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 54492 by Decomposed)
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what about the people who have it, are not fully recovered but they are on the road to recovery?

TOO many unknowns for me.... And I do not belive any number in the 20's would be accurate...
We'll see over time... Its a good start to try to figure it out but I would not ascribe to that method....

No biggie... Very Happy


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?
By: Decomposed in POPE 5
Sat, 07 Mar 20 12:58 AM 		Msg. 54492 of 62138

micro:

Re: "I took the number of deaths and divided it by total cases. Are you diving the number of deaths by the number recovered? "I'm dividing Deaths by (Deaths + Recovered). You can't divide by the number of Cases since the vast majority of that populace are still combating the disease. There's no way of knowing what percentage of them will die - could be all of them... could be none of them.

As of this instant, Italy has had 720 cases with an ultimate resolution - recovery or death. That's a good-sized sample from which to draw a conclusion. Of those 720, 197 died. 27.4 percent. If you can think of any reason why I'm not looking at a representative sample of Italian cases, please advise. Otherwise, 27.4 percent is the number and it is TRULY frightening. It would have to mean that Italy has a different, more virulent strain of SARS-COV-2.

South Korea looks similar. King County, WA, looks even worse with 12 deaths out of 51 cases. Not 51 recoveries, but 51 cases. At this point, the very best King County can hope for is a mortality rate of 24 percent.

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