Forum Home | Log in | Signup | My Page | Rules | FAQ | Boards | Members | Search
« POPE 5 Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?

By: Decomposed in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 07 Mar 20 12:58 AM | 48 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 54492 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 54482 by micro)
Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

micro:

Re: "I took the number of deaths and divided it by total cases. Are you diving the number of deaths by the number recovered? "I'm dividing Deaths by (Deaths + Recovered). You can't divide by the number of Cases since the vast majority of that populace are still combating the disease. There's no way of knowing what percentage of them will die - could be all of them... could be none of them.

As of this instant, Italy has had 720 cases with an ultimate resolution - recovery or death. That's a good-sized sample from which to draw a conclusion. Of those 720, 197 died. 27.4 percent. If you can think of any reason why I'm not looking at a representative sample of Italian cases, please advise. Otherwise, 27.4 percent is the number and it is TRULY frightening. It would have to mean that Italy has a different, more virulent strain of SARS-COV-2.

South Korea looks similar. King County, WA, looks even worse with 12 deaths out of 51 cases. Not 51 recoveries, but 51 cases. At this point, the very best King County can hope for is a mortality rate of 24 percent.




Avatar

Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


 - - - - -
View Replies (2) »



» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?
By: micro in POPE 5
Fri, 06 Mar 20 11:14 PM 		Msg. 54482 of 62138

De

canyou explain the math for finding the Mortality percentage.

I took the number of deaths and divided it by total cases.

Are you diving the number of deaths by the number recovered? If so, that is not going to be accurate as it is too early to tell how many people out of the total cases have finsihed this illness and outof the woods so to speak.

I am NOT buying mortality rates in the 20 opercentile area or higher...

I think that the data is not sufficient to distinguish that yet.. JMO

Thanks!

« POPE 5 Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next