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Re: COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?

By: micro in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (0)
Fri, 06 Mar 20 11:14 PM | 38 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 54482 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 54451 by Decomposed)
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De

canyou explain the math for finding the Mortality percentage.

I took the number of deaths and divided it by total cases.

Are you diving the number of deaths by the number recovered? If so, that is not going to be accurate as it is too early to tell how many people out of the total cases have finsihed this illness and outof the woods so to speak.

I am NOT buying mortality rates in the 20 opercentile area or higher...

I think that the data is not sufficient to distinguish that yet.. JMO

Thanks!


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The above is a reply to the following message:
COVID-19... Looking at Today's Numbers. What is the real Mortality Rate?
By: Decomposed in POPE 5
Fri, 06 Mar 20 6:33 PM 		Msg. 54451 of 62138

The only legitimate way to determine Covid-19's mortality rate is to compare the number of deaths to the total number of resolved cases. The bigger the number of resolved cases, the more accurate the calculated mortality rate should be. Until now, there haven't been enough resolved cases to come up with a meaningful number. We're now there though, and . . . what I'm seeing is bad. Really bad.

Italy and South Korea have a lot of resolved cases and sky-high mortality rates.

On the spreadsheet below, I've added a "Mortality Rate" column to today's numbers. Of the "countries" that have resolved a significant number of their Covid-19 cases (either dead or recovered), China's numbers are probably fake. So, I'm interested in rows 4 through 7: South Korea, Iran, Italy and Diamond Princess.

If you notice, South Korea and Italy have a large number of resolved cases and calculated mortality rates in the ballpark of TWENTY FIVE PERCENT. This is dramatically higher than the 3.4 percent figure the WHO has just told us to expect, and I think it's highly unlikely that the sample sizes are too small to be right.

It looks to me as if there is a far more virulent strain of the virus spreading in these two places.

Italy worries me more than South Korea. If you've been reading the news, you should be aware that an enormous number of countries are reporting their first cases as having been traced to Italy. This suggests that the Italian strain of Covid-19 is not only much deadlier than what authorities have been citing for Covid-19 as a whole, it's also much more transmissible.

Pay attention to this. I think I'm on to something important.


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