March 3, 2020
Four things to watch for on Super Tuesday: Bloomberg's showtime, the Biden-Sanders divide, and Warren hanging on
by Emily Larsen
WashingtonExaminer.com
Dynamics in the Democratic presidential race are about to shift from depending on polls and candidate posturing to hard numbers.
Between 14 states, plus the territory of American Samoa and Democrats voting abroad, contests in every region of the country on Tuesday will account for 1,357 pledged nominating delegates, about a third of the total. The two biggest states voting are Texas, which has 228 delegates up for grabs, and California, with 415 delegates. Candidates must obtain 15% support statewide or in a district to earn delegates.
Here are four things to watch for as the results are announced:
Michael Bloomberg’s high-spending campaign put to the test
Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, skipped the first four nominating contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, opting instead to use his $56 billion fortune to try to scoop up support in delegate-rich Super Tuesday states and beyond.
His more than half a billion dollars spent on advertising since he entered the race in late November and large, high-paid campaign staff of more than 2,000 people have propelled Bloomberg to third place in the RealClearPolitics average of primary polls at 15%.
Tuesday is a test of whether Bloomberg’s mold-breaking, high-spending strategy translates into nominating delegates.
East-West divide in Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders strongholds
Demographic and ideological differences across geographic regions are set to boost the socialist Vermont senator in Western states and the former vice president in Southern states.
About 40% of the electorate in California and Texas is expected to be Hispanic and Latino voters, a demographic that Sanders won by more than 30 points in the Nevada caucuses. Sanders leads recent polls in the two states.
Biden has polling leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida — states similar to South Carolina, where he bested Sanders by nearly 30 points, in that the voter base is more centrist and has a high percentage of black voters, demographics with which Biden usually leads.
Joe Biden boost from Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar endorsements
After lackluster single-digit finishes in South Carolina on Saturday, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor and Minnesota senator dropped out of the race within a day of each other and endorsed Biden on Monday in an apparent bid to stop Sanders from amassing a large delegate lead.
It is unclear, though, whether former Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters will overwhelmingly migrate to Biden. A Morning Consult poll found that Sanders was the top second-choice pick among Buttigieg supporters, while Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was tied with Biden as the second-most popular second-choice pick.
Can Warren hold on to Massachusetts?
The last viable female candidate in the race is struggling to stay the top presidential pick among Democrats in her own state of Massachusetts as Sanders moves in on her turf. Hoping to cement himself as the preferred left-wing candidate, Sanders held two rallies in the state on Friday and Saturday.
Sanders leads Warren by 4 points in the RealClearPolitics average of Massachusetts polls.
Warren’s campaign on Sunday published a memo explaining how it plans to win the Democratic presidential nomination, alluding to an expectation of a contested convention. But if she does not win her home state, she will feel increasing pressure to exit the race.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/four-things-to-watch-for-on-super-tuesday-bloombergs-showtime-the-biden-sanders-divide-and-warren-hanging-on
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