November 27, 2019
The Warren free fall is real
by Becket Adams
WashingtonExaminer.com
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is free, free falling.
The 2020 Democratic primary candidate’s poll numbers have collapsed in recent weeks, inciting panicky headlines like, “What happened to Elizabeth Warren?” from newsrooms that have all but formally endorsed her campaign.
A new Quinnipiac survey of Democrats and “Democratic-leaners” released this week shows Warren in third place with 14% of support. She registers just behind South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (16%), and front-runner Joe Biden (24%).
Though third place seems like a good spot for any candidate, the latest Quinnipiac survey, which was conducted between Nov. 21 and 25 and surveyed 1,355 self-identified registered voters nationwide, should have Warren worried. It shows a substantial and sudden decline in support compared to the polling group's previous surveys of self-identified Democrat and Democratic-leaning voters.
An Oct. 14 Quinnipiac poll reported, for example, that Warren had an impressive 30% of support. A separate Oct. 24 Quinnipiac poll showed the Massachusetts senator taking in a slightly smaller 28%. The group reports now that the senator comes in with just 14% of the vote, a decline of more than 16 points since mid-October.
That is not all. Support for Warren's White House bid has fallen off in surveys conducted by competing polling groups.
A Morning Consult survey conducted between Oct. 7 and 12 showed Warren at 21%. A survey by the same group conducted between Nov. 21-24 showed the senator slipped six points to 15%. An Oct. 17-20 CNN survey showed Warren a 19%. A Nov. 21-24 survey by the same newsroom showed her at 14%. An Oct. 6-8 YouGov survey showed Warren registering at 29%. A Nov. 17-19 YouGov survey showed her at 22%.
Overall, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Warren’s numbers have dropped by more than 10 points from her Oct. 9 high of 26.8% to just 16.7% in late November.
The senator’s star rose steadily throughout the summer and well into the fall. She even led her 2020 competitors in certain polls of early voting states. But it has been almost entirely downhill since mid-October. If the senator doesn’t do something soon, she may find herself sharing a bunk with fellow no-hope 2020 has-been California Sen. Kamala Harris. Worse, Warren may find herself drummed out of the primary altogether like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.
So to repeat a question asked by the Washington Post: What happened?
A couple of things may explain Warren’s polling collapse. First, there is the obvious: Between now and mid-October, the senator released her ludicrous, multitrillion-dollar Medicare for All plan and her equally ludicrous policy paper explaining how she plans to “fund” it. In fact, if you look at the RealClearPolitics polling average chart, the drop in support for Warren’s candidacy coincides almost precisely with the release of her healthcare proposal and the subsequent bipartisan criticism it called down on her head. The senator’s persistent refusal to offer policy specifics during the Democratic debates likely has not helped her either.
There is another data point to consider: Quinnipiac asked survey respondents in its latest poll for their thoughts on “removing the current health care system and replacing it with a single-payer system, in which the federal government would expand Medicare to cover the medical expenses of every American citizen.” Fifty-two percent of respondents said it was a “bad idea,” while a much, much smaller 36% said it was a “good idea.” Two years ago, those numbers were 51% “good idea,” 38% “bad idea.”
The Warren collapse may be no more complicated than potential primary voters thinking she is a decidedly unrealistic and unserious option to take on President Trump in 2020.
However, there is another, smaller theory to explain the collapse: “Her support base was exactly the kind of voters who would read about and be spooked by the NYT polls,” said New York Magazine’s Josh Barro.
I am sympathetic to this take. I also believe it does not have to be an either/or situation. It could be that Warren’s support is hemorrhaging because of her farcical policy proposals and because the sort of person who supported her in the first place is also the sort of person to jump ship at the first sign of choppy waters.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/the-warren-free-fall-is-real
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