Braindead or Willfully Manipulative? How the Media Reported Retail Sales
by Wolf Richter • Oct 16, 2019 • 58 Comments • Email to a friend
Like a centrally directed disinformation campaign. Here’s what happened.
And it was everywhere. Misleading headlines about retail sales, from which reporters then extrapolated silly conclusions about the consumer while clamoring for a rate cut from the Fed.
Barron’s:
“The American consumer – backed by strong wage growth – has offset weakness in corporate profits and capital spending for much of the past year. The Commerce Department’s latest update of retail and food service spending, published Wednesday, suggests the growth spurt is over.
“The upshot? The slowdown could prompt a more vigorous “midcycle adjustment”—read: interest rate cuts – by the Federal Reserve when it meets at the end of the month….”
The Wall Street Journal:
“American shoppers pulled back on spending in September, signaling a key support for the U.S. economy this year could be softening amid a broader global economic slowdown.”
Bloomberg’s masterpiece about the suddenly “shaky” consumer:
“U.S. retail sales unexpectedly posted the first decline in seven months, suggesting consumers are starting to become shaky as the main pillar of economic growth and potentially bolstering the case for a third straight Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.”
So here is what happened.
The Commerce Department released its “Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services” this morning. This is the first estimate for the month that will get revised – often substantially – in following months as more data become available. And the report said that in September compared to September last year:
Total retail & food services (restaurants, cafes, etc.) rose 4.1%.
Retail sales without food services rose 4.0%.
Food services sales rose 4.9%.
Retail sales without gasoline sales rose 4.7%.
Retail sales without gasoline, motor vehicles & parts sales rose 4.5%.
Sales at non-store retailers (ecommerce, vending machines, door-to-door, telemarketing, home parties such as Tupperware, etc.) rose 12.9%.
So, a 4.0% year-over-year increase in retail sales is pretty strong – and about in line what you’d expect from the mythic figure, the indomitable American consumer. It’s the second highest percentage increase (behind August’s 4.6%) since October last year:
more,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
http://wolfstreet.com/2019/10/16/braindead-or-willfully-manipulative-how-the-media-reported-retail-sales/
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
| 
