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Re: Pretty nice week on wall street

By: micro in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 07 Sep 19 10:58 PM | 31 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 39401 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 39395 by Decomposed)
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De

I could sell my house in one day here. This area is a red hot real estate markert in Cincinnati. Many people anywhere within 15 miles of me have listed and sold their houses within one week, many in one day....

The POINT of my diatribe was that whilesome may think that the end is near, kindly explain why it is a not an employers market for employees.

There are more job openings than people to fill them, especially qualified people.

Thatis the ature of the economy and market. SO, are companies who are in financial doo doo actually hiring all these people????

IF you find good solid companies making money, looking at those financial statements and the stock price gets beaten down due to panic created fears, what changed about that company? Nothing... BUY that stock whiole itis cheap and especially if it has a history of paying solid dividends that have steadily increased...

I am quite aware of the deficit spending. That started a very long time ago and kep on growing with each succeeding President's lack of control.

I am all in favor of a balanced budget LAW and Constitutional amendment to reinforce it!

But that is not an indicator the sky is falling.

The number of people who want to work and and employers who wantto hire and are fighting over those people is an indicator of the status of the present economy....

I simply have a much different perspective coming from industry and knowingthat there wil always be companies going out of business orl etting go employees while OTHERS at the same time are hiring like crazy, but we tend to not want to talk about them for some reason...

Just because there is silence on that side does not mean it is not happening... There are more unfilled jobs than there are people who are available to fill them.

THAT is a fact. So I don;t get excited about the lists that our good friend keeps us informed about throughoutthe week of different stores, small businesses, whatever closing down or consolidating operations.

That is what I see and that is what I am saying.

Ya know, if I started ten years ago sayingthe sky is falling, eventually sometime over the next 20 years that may wll turn oout to be the case. Did that make me correct? That's not a good argument..

Just saying look at the employment figures and then see if they add up to a huge economic recession...
That's all.

Enjoy the beautiful weather we are having as well! You have a great view.....

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Pretty nice week on wall street
By: Decomposed in POPE 5
Sat, 07 Sep 19 8:42 PM 		Msg. 39395 of 62138

micro:

Re: "BUT today is a an era of HYPER overstating things and trying to get the masses to believe that the sky is falling"Please think about what you are saying: "What we're experiencing is business as usual, even though our government has outspent its revenues by 15 million million dollars over the last 15 years." Is that what you believe? I doubt it. It's incorrect.

We are headed for trouble and there is no plan for changing course. In fact, the nearest thing there is to a plan is to accelerate the spending. Is a ruckus that "the sky is falling!" so inappropriate?

What we're discovering is that it takes a very long time for the sky to fall, that's all. That doesn't mean it's not happening.

Consider the interest rates. They plummeted to near zero. Many warned that lowering them so far was ludicrous. Savers, after all, have to be paid SOMETHING in order to not spend their money themselves. Right? And borrowers have to pay SOMETHING for the privilege of using somebody else's money. Right? So zero interest rates aren't sustainable. However, folks went along with the rate drop with the understanding that it was only a SHORT TERM TACTIC by our Central Bank. When conditions improved, rates would go back up.

But look what happened. The economy seemed robust. The Fed tried to raise rates, and the economy unraveled so rapidly that the Fed had to reverse course and lower them again. In other words, zero percent - which is unsustainable - has become the new normal. Even when the economy is doing well, rates can't go up! At zero percent, they really also can't go down. So, what ammo does the Federal Reserve have in reserve for use in the next recession? There WILL be a next recession, you know. Recessions are normal. Or, at least, they used to be.

The answer is that the Fed has no more bullets. The next downturn is going to be horrendous.

You asked that we not panic. Panicking is a liberal trait... emotion over mind... and it does no good. So, that's sage advice. But what's happening today is unsustainable and the sky IS falling. The fact that we can live quite well by spending more than we earn doesn't change the ultimate outcome. It only postpones it.

That said, I want to point out something remarkable. If you graph prices against interest rates, it turns out that both stocks and residential properties are extremely AFFORDABLE right now. I'm not going to say "cheap," but they're affordable and will likely rise substantially from here. Such a graph actually predicts DOW 50,000. Believe it or not.

Housing prices should also rise dramatically. They aren't screaming deals like they were in 2012 - they will not be that cheap again in our lifetimes - but they are still extremely good deals. This is a side effect of our insanely low interest rates. Not many Americans are in a position to benefit from them, but *YOU* are. You might want to give it some thought.

And, yes, here I am, seemingly contradicting myself by actually recommending that you BUY, BUY, BUY!! I don't think you'll find many others (except for unscrupulous brokers, of course) making that call right now. But things get weird when money is backed by nothing and interest rates approach zero.

LOL. I'm offering no guarantees!

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