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Re: Pretty nice week on wall street 

By: Decomposed in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (1)
Sat, 07 Sep 19 8:42 PM | 52 view(s)
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Msg. 39395 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 39394 by micro)

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micro:

Re: "BUT today is a an era of HYPER overstating things and trying to get the masses to believe that the sky is falling"
Please think about what you are saying: "What we're experiencing is business as usual, even though our government has outspent its revenues by 15 million million dollars over the last 15 years." Is that what you believe? I doubt it. It's incorrect.

We are headed for trouble and there is no plan for changing course. In fact, the nearest thing there is to a plan is to accelerate the spending. Is a ruckus that "the sky is falling!" so inappropriate?

What we're discovering is that it takes a very long time for the sky to fall, that's all. That doesn't mean it's not happening.

Consider the interest rates. They plummeted to near zero. Many warned that lowering them so far was ludicrous. Savers, after all, have to be paid SOMETHING in order to not spend their money themselves. Right? And borrowers have to pay SOMETHING for the privilege of using somebody else's money. Right? So zero interest rates aren't sustainable. However, folks went along with the rate drop with the understanding that it was only a SHORT TERM TACTIC by our Central Bank. When conditions improved, rates would go back up.

But look what happened. The economy seemed robust. The Fed tried to raise rates, and the economy unraveled so rapidly that the Fed had to reverse course and lower them again. In other words, zero percent - which is unsustainable - has become the new normal. Even when the economy is doing well, rates can't go up! At zero percent, they really also can't go down. So, what ammo does the Federal Reserve have in reserve for use in the next recession? There WILL be a next recession, you know. Recessions are normal. Or, at least, they used to be.

The answer is that the Fed has no more bullets. The next downturn is going to be horrendous.

You asked that we not panic. Panicking is a liberal trait... emotion over mind... and it does no good. So, that's sage advice. But what's happening today is unsustainable and the sky IS falling. The fact that we can live quite well by spending more than we earn doesn't change the ultimate outcome. It only postpones it.

That said, I want to point out something remarkable. If you graph prices against interest rates, it turns out that both stocks and residential properties are extremely AFFORDABLE right now. I'm not going to say "cheap," but they're affordable and will likely rise substantially from here. Such a graph actually predicts DOW 50,000. Believe it or not.

Housing prices should also rise dramatically. They aren't screaming deals like they were in 2012 - they will not be that cheap again in our lifetimes - but they are still extremely good deals. This is a side effect of our insanely low interest rates. Not many Americans are in a position to benefit from them, but *YOU* are. You might want to give it some thought.

And, yes, here I am, seemingly contradicting myself by actually recommending that you BUY, BUY, BUY!! I don't think you'll find many others (except for unscrupulous brokers, of course) making that call right now. But things get weird when money is backed by nothing and interest rates approach zero.

LOL. I'm offering no guarantees!




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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Pretty nice week on wall street
By: micro
in POPE 5
Sat, 07 Sep 19 3:32 PM
Msg. 39394 of 62138

Despite the rhetoric, despite the normal weekly closures of businesses or some companies laying off which has gone every year of every decade since I was in business, and DESPITE Trump openly talking about trade wars with China and tariffs, the DOW , S&P had a decent week. Nice rebound from an over reaction which I believe is caused by two things. Leftist oranizations doing anything to cause panic and fear for any reason to anything Trump says, so those liberal owned and run financial trading companies tank things, nad of course the leftist talkingheads boohing and trying to scare everybody on the planet.

The SKY is falling.... If I had a dime every time I heard that I would be very rich.

My investments are all UP for the week. Again.

Let's keep in mind that MORE people are buying LESS from brick and mortar places so you read and hear about layoffs.

NOT just the retail stores. The places that make the products that are not flying off the store shelves anymore have lopst that sales outlet and need fewer if any employees and so will do the logical thing, like consolidate your operations, less overhead, and cut back. Some go out of busines. HAPPENS ALL the time.... Every year.

90 perentof all startups within ten years will FAIL. Business 101. So all the hysterial about layoffs and job losses are not unusual to me. They should not be to many either.

BUT today is a an era of HYPER overstating things and trying to get the masses to believe that the sky is falling andits all Trump's economic policies that are causing it....

I really weary of that stuff. I did well in over 4 decades of business. There were some down times also.

I have seen sompanies that were customers come and go, grow and contract. There are endless reasons as to why that happens. Mosta re tied to economies and conditions in other countries where we conduct business as well.

I am not trying to be specific here but an really overimplifying the things I have seen over 40 years in American Business. I see NOTHING unusual with layoffs or tiny store closings and even some larger types of businesses.

SO until I can something really different, some real solid reasons as to why GOOD sound companies are suddenly struggling to stay afloat, I sleep well at night....

Just tired of all the social media hype and hysteria who are rooting for America to fall apart at the seams and then we can become the Socialist county they want us to become...... But first they have to create instability, fear, doubt, and decline if possible....

I am too old and experienced for that. Hopefully most of my friends here are as well. Look at the market since early 1920's thru today. You will see ups and dome major downs. Then you see the steady rising again and before long the market has doubled, then tripled, even though we have large drops in the market. THAT is quite normal. The sky is not falling.....

It will be fine. It is adjusting to current economic conditions and market conditions. HAd you invested in the DOW long ago and let it ride you would be very wealthy.

So please do not panic... Be prepared with a plan as De has begged us all along, but in the meantime, don't fall for the BS.

just my soap box of constant everyday baloney that irritates the crap out of me.


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