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Re: Dorian Far Stronger Right Now Than Andrew Was  

By: Zimbler0 in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (1)
Mon, 02 Sep 19 4:26 AM | 48 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 39084 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 39079 by Decomposed)
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Dorian is a BIG FAT Girl.

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http://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


I find this site lovely, and interesting, as
it shows what looks like a 'moving picture' of
the hurricane in motion.

Pretty scary too, actually.

Zim.




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Mad Poet Strikes Again.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Dorian Far Stronger Right Now Than Andrew Was
By: Decomposed in POPE 5
Sun, 01 Sep 19 11:55 PM 		Msg. 39079 of 62138

Bad news for Florida.

Although I'm not seeing this reported anywhere, I've been comparing the models that NOAA issues every three hours to see if the hurricane is beginning its predicted turn. It isn't, and by now it should have.

Earlier today, the prediction was that Florida would escape hurricane-force winds. In the diagram below, you can see how Florida had a blue line along its coast in the 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. models - indicating tropical storm force winds only. In the 5 p.m. model, a considerable portion of the coast has gone red, meaning hurricane force winds. If you look VERY closely at the "X" that shows Dorian's position at the time the model was published, you'll see that at this very critical stage, the storm isn't making the expected initially-slight turn. Every hour brings it 7 miles closer to Florida. If it doesn't turn substantially by morning, odds are that it WILL come ashore.

Will it turn? It all depends on an immense high pressure region to the northeast of Florida. Meteorologists are certain that it is going to break in two, giving Dorian room to slide north. But they don't really know when that will happen. If it holds together longer than expected or Dorian speeds up even a little, it will make landfall. IMO, the likelihood of catastrophic damage along a wide swath of the Florida coast is vastly higher than it was just 3 hours ago.

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