CNN, Washington Post start hedging bets in case of a 2016 repeat
http://www.dailywire.com/news/37992/cnn-quakes-margin-error-among-mid-term-polls-joseph-curl
By Joseph Curl
The Daily Wire
November 5, 2018
For months and months, you've heard all about the "blue tide" about to crash over America like a tsunami.
But a day before the mid-term elections, that wave is all dried up.
CNN, in a piece headlined "The Forecast: Democrats are still favored to win the House. But it's far from a sure thing.", has completely changed the outlook.
"House forecast: Democrats will win 226 seats (and the House majority) while Republicans will win just 209 seats. A Democratic win of 203 seats and 262 seats is within the margin of error," says the "analysis" article by Harry Enten.
Whu?
So, Democrats could win as few as 203 and as many as 262? That's a 59-seat range. That's like a weatherman saying it might rain four inches tomorrow, or be sunny and 72 all day. Don't know; pick 'em.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the House (and, if she gets her wish, install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, again). The magic number is 218; win 218 seats, you've got the House. And there are still many scenarios in which the Democrats do just that, and perhaps much more, but the braggadocio of days past is now somehow missing.
"Sometimes the final weekend brings clarity. This weekend brings no such thing. Instead, Democrats remain modest - though not runaway - favorites to gain House control," Enten writes.
The writer goes on to optimistically paint a bright picture for Democrats, but concludes with this: "Indeed, the district polls, district forecasts and national polls agree that the district that puts Democrats over the top will not be won by a large margin. That means Democrats are still susceptible to a national polling error allowing Republicans to barely hold on.
The contentious hearings for Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, in which a Senate Democrat hid uncorroborated sexual allegations against him until the 11th hour, were a disaster for Democrats. Thousands and thousands of Central Americans marching toward the U.S.-Mexico border intent on entering America has also been a big loser for the party, which asserts their right to enter.
Then there's the booming economy, and the accompanying optimism, that's brightening Republicans' chances. That has The Washington Post worried.
"Democrats retain their advantage in the battle for the House, but Republicans could be buoyed by increasingly positive assessments of the economy and by President Trump's harsh focus on the issues of immigration and border security, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News national poll," wrote the Post.
The liberal inside-the-Beltway paper also says that while the poll finds registered voters prefer Democratic candidates for the House over Republican candidates by 7 percentage points, that's down from 11 points since last month and half the 14-point margin they enjoyed in August.
And pollsters, who got 2016 so wrong, say it's still a crapshoot. "Public and private polls of individual races conducted by candidates, political party committees, the media and others show many contests still within the margin of error," the Post says.
Democrats may well take control of the House, may even do so decisively. After all, the party that does not control the White House almost always picks up a slew of seats in the first mid-term after a presidential election (Barack Obama's party lost 63 seats in 2010).
But one last thing: The uber-liberal Huffington Post doesn't have a prediction story up on its home page just hours before the polls open. In case you've forgotten, here's what the site wrote in a day before the November 2016 election: "The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory."
Now, the "HuffPost" has just a generic Associated Press story on its home page, with this headline: "Nothing Is Certain On Eve Of First Nationwide Elections Of Trump Presidency."
We certainly don't know what's going to happen. We're just pointing out that predictions of a blue tsunami are long gone, and some of the most liberal news outlet in the country are quickly hedging their bets just in case a repeat of 2016 occurs.
The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted. ~ D.H. Lawrence
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