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Re: Spitznagel Blasts 'Buy-And-Hold': "It's More Like Hope & Prayer" From Here 

By: Zimbler0 in POPE IV | Recommend this post (1)
Mon, 12 Mar 18 1:05 AM | 84 view(s)
Boardmark this board | POPES NEW and Improved Real Board 		Msg. 45457 of 47202
(This msg. is a reply to 45456 by Decomposed)
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Decomposed > The question is, what changed and is it a permanent new reality?

Well.
In the late 1990's we had the mother of all stock market bubbles.
(Which ended in disaster.)

After the Y2K meltdown we had a housing bubble.
Which ended with the 'subprime meltdown' disaster.

After Obonzo slunk into the White House we had
'Quantitative Easing' inflating the stock markets.

What changed? My guess would be a more socialist
attitude at the federal level - loans for everybody
even though a lot of them would never get paid back . . .
Quantitative Easing - FREE Money . . . never mind that
it all wound up in the pockets of the rich . . .

Is this a 'new normal' ? Gods I hope not.

What has been a constant through all this?
Dividend Aristocrats increasing their dividends.

(Dominion is NOT a dividend aristocrat . . . but the dividend
has been non-stop for twenty years that I can attest to.)

Zim.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Spitznagel Blasts 'Buy-And-Hold': "It's More Like Hope & Prayer" From Here
By: Decomposed in POPE IV
Sun, 11 Mar 18 10:47 PM 		Msg. 45456 of 47202

Zimbler0:

Re: “Buying and Holding companies like Dominion Resources ('D') looks like a very good idea to me. I've owned my
Dominion Resources stock for about twenty years now.
And never regretted it for a second. The dividend checks just keep rolling in un-interrupted and it is worth a LOT more than I paid for it.”

Based on that reasoning and Dominion's stinky performance compared to Amazon and Google, you really ought to be recommending Amazon and Google today. Why aren't you?

I think it's obvious. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

From 1938 to 1991, the S&P occasionally had a P/E above 15, but never maintained it. About as much time was spent with a P/E below 9, with occasional drops below 7. Obviously, buying when the P/E was above 15 was a poor move during those 53 years.

Since 1991, the pattern has changed and the S&P's PE has rarely fallen BELOW 15.

The question is, what changed and is it a permanent new reality?

I have my thoughts on that question, but before I express them, I'd be curious to know yours.

BTW, Dominion's P/E is currently 15.45.

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