Summary
Bitcoin has had a historic run.
The time to buy was the breakout of the downtrend in 2015 and close above 300.
Fear and greed are the two most powerful market forces.
Investing vs. speculating in a boom/bust system.
In all my years in finance, I've never seen anything like this, particularly on the upside. The data says no one has.
Before I get started, let me say I am not a crypto hater. As a former gold bug during 2005-2011, the goal of decentralization is well understood. I know what I need to know about these vehicles and wrote about the boom to technicians this market has provided in my past article Cryptocurrency Charts!
With that said, on to the bonanza...
Chart Watching
Technicals get mixed reviews. On Seeking Alpha, it seems to be a lukewarm sorta deal. Which is great, in the end it's highly subjective. I'd argue so is fundamental valuation, but that is for another day.
Technicals can, however, tell us a lot about emotions. This is where I've had the most success with chart analysis, both on the upside and down. Some of my largest trades have come from capitalizing on both the fear and greed of others.
What I said, when I said it:
It was 2 short years ago, but here are my 'bitcoin' emails. Figured it was time to dust these off. Hopefully, they help show how being open to pattern analysis, new technologies, and price action can help keep one's own views and emotions out of the trade. They absolutely speak to knowing WHEN to buy what others won't, the combination of which is required when finding AND profiting from value.
Extremely important was that the sentiment at the time was fully in the toilet. The 'fear' part of the bottoming process had passed, it was on to outright dejection as no one cared. Many don't remember, but in 2015, Bitcoin was under serious ridicule.
6/30/2015
Bitcoin charts start to setup on the weekly time frames.
9 more pages,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4130976-bitcoin-bonanza
Realist - Everybody in America is soft, and hates conflict. The cure for this, both in politics and social life, is the same -- hardihood. Give them raw truth.
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