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Debt - Playing with the Curve(s) of Best Fit again...

By: De_Composed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 23 Apr 24 8:32 AM | 21 view(s)
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Msg. 52640 of 52864
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I obtained National Debt numbers from 1929 to 2023 and threw them into a spreadsheet in order to play around with them some more. The two images, below, are derived from those numbers and show the same thing... but the second is zoomed in to emphasize what matters, the lower right side of each ellipse. The first image does a better job of showing what I mean when I say I drew ellipses to find the curves of best fit.

FYI, 39 on the X-axis represents 1965. 49 represents 1975. 95 represents 2023. I was too lazy to label the axes properly so you're getting the default labels.

On the two charts, red represents the debt. Green is the curve of best fit if I start in 1965. Purple is the curve of best fit if I start in 1975. All you need to take away from that is that green starts ten years earlier than purple. The two lead to practically the same conclusion... that the debt is extremely close right now to turning vertical. That's the point at which infinite additional dollars will be needed to stay on a curve that the United States has been on for so many decades. I still think we're looking at 2 to 5 years before that happens. I'm not going to pin it down more than that. I only eyeballed things, after all, and therefore acknowledge that my images and estimates aren't perfect.


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