For example, the UK is not in the category of freeloaders by percentage of GDP assigned to military expenditure.
But I was shocked when I recently reviewed the scale of the British Navy, which is traditionally a key element of the defense of our little island. It is teeny. Putin has clearly noticed and is testing its defensive flexibility and breadth (Russia has a lot of ships but many are obsolete). He's already done the same thing with air defence. Why?
For me, the UK should spend another 1% of GDP on defence. I would like to see Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Poland etc do the same. Because we have a bullying invader living next door. Putin is clearly rearming his country and seeking to undermine the political systems of his neighbours. Why?
These questions appear to have a clear answer. Putin wants to restore the power and influence and scope of iron curtain Russia. Everything he is doing fits this strategy. He wishes to undermine everyone that stands in his way.
Last time we had this sort of threat, it turned out that spending early on our defence was a good idea. We ought to have done more. So that when the dark time came, we were ready. But the much derided policy of appeasement saw expenditure on the Royal Air Force rise from £16.8 million in 1933 to £105.7 million in 1939 and that investment saved Britain in 1940. Being generous to aggrieved dictators turned out not to stop them invading their neighbours, but it did buy time for rearmament and in the end, this helped turn the tide.
The same issue turned out to be relevant for the US in the 1930s and the beginning of the 1940s. Back then, it tried isolationism, which didn't turn out well. Even if, militarily, the US remains unassailable at this time, it cannot apply its power if its leaders are inept, or worse. Let's say Trump starts a war with China in the South China Sea, is NATO going to be capable of protecting Eastern Europe and the Baltic states at the same time? Would Trump even be willing to honour the US' NATO commitments? What happens if Russia decides it also wants the Middle East's oil (notice it has been strengthening its relationships with Syria, Turkey and Iran - the countries in between it and the Gulf - and securing its naval bases in the Crimea and Syria which can be used to bring assets into the Levant), and how would that affect Russia's wealth and global power? Would Trump stand in Putin's way? On its current trajectory, I can't see a Trump administration keeping its eyes on the whole chessboard, let alone reacting before it's too late. That is, assuming the dossier isn't dodgy. If it reflects the substance, Trump will abet Putin's plans.
Thus far, I am afraid I am not filled with confidence.
Also. For air power in the 1930s, think cyberspace today.
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