Not a big fan of Obama's foreign policy. His fastidious character means he doesn't want to get his hands dirty. But in foreign policy, being fearsome has some advantages. The Syrian red line issue exposed him as a bluffer, and nearly every foreign policy explanation I have heard from him since has seemed to mask his intention of doing nothing. He's a passivist-pacifist who expects people to play by the rules and tuts if they don't. And this has shown savage actors their path forward: call Obama's bluff. Putin interfered with the US election and knew Obama would do nothing. Tut, Vladimir. China created a military base on an island constructed on a reef off SE Asia. Tut, Xi. The Middle East is in civil war partly because American influence has been withdrawn. Sort this out yourselves, guys. Which sounds somewhat reasonable until Isis emerges from the sands. There's little purpose in having a superpower military if no one fears you will use it.
Trump's initial reaction to any event is always to talk tough on Twitter, the natural forum for a statesman to state his opinion. Within 24 hours, he usually changes his position several times in different media, finishing with a quiet withdrawal. Mostly because his advisors explain what's wrong with what he said. So he does macho posturing and then people talk sense to him. Again, he's a bluffer. I don't think he's a tough guy. I think he's a flat track bully. He'll cave to Russia and China which are led by genuine hard men. They'll learn to ignore Trump's gut reactions and assume the withdrawals are a confirmation of the US President's weakness. I think Trump will decide Europe is his victim because collectively the European countries are feeble. And bullies need weak targets to prove their credentials to themselves. Which country will Putin chew on this time? Will Japan decide it has to rearm because it doesn't trust Trump to come to its aid when China threatens?
What a world that has such people leading it. Ostensibly.
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