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Re: OUR FINAL 2016 PICKS - Edit

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 08 Nov 16 8:45 PM | 68 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 20090 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 20085 by Cactus Flower)
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To be fair to Nate Silver, I think his 300 is probabilistic. His actual number looks like it is at about 322.

And Sam Wang revised his numbers last night and went for 323, and 51 Dem Senate seats.

So 322-323 is looking like a popular electoral college number. They are basically the same as there's no polling data for Maine and Nebraska's spare vote.

I still reckon Ohio's a decent shot for the Dems so long as their ground game is strong. Although I have just learnt that Huffpost's polling data is short for the last few weeks, which means a 3% deficit is the likely starting point.

RCP's no toss-ups map has Clinton on 272.

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: OUR FINAL 2016 PICKS
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Tue, 08 Nov 16 3:59 PM 		Msg. 20085 of 54959

Thanks. 53-47 is actually my best guess from the Huffpost charts. Plus Clinton's ground game. I am surprised no one else is where I am!!! The great Sam Wang himself says he hasn't allowed for the ground game because he's only a pollster.

So here we are:

Sam Wang has Clinton 312 and Senate 50-50.

Nate Silver has Clinton 300 and Senate 50-50 (no cheating by changing your "prediction" after the election has started this time, please).

Larry Sabato has Clinton 322 and Senate 50-50.

tkc has a 51-49 Senate.

dig has Clinton 323 and a 50-50 Senate.

clo has Clinton 325 and a 50-50 Senate.

cactus has Clinton on 341 and a 53-47 Senate.

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