Msg. 20081 of 54959 (This msg. is a reply to
20080 by
Cactus Flower)
Jump:
Hi all, I hope HRC's win is substantial but I'll be fine w/ only a 10 pt margin. For Senate, Nv holds, Wisc,Ill,Pa & NH flip plus one other (NC or Ind) and I'll go w/ Ind. Dems 51-49. The big remaining question is will the GoP fillibuster each & every SCOTUS nominee.
Basically, I looked at Huffpost's charts for each state. Their charts are how I have figured my guesses for the last two elections. And strangely, they look just about good enough for each Democratic senate candidate, especially if you throw in a strong ground game, beginning with a huge effort to get wobblers to the polls early. If so, they should win by a better margin than the polls indicate. So that's why my bet is what it is. It's the polls plus 2% for the Dems.
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