Msg. 20080 of 54959 (This msg. is a reply to
20078 by
DigSpace)
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Basically, I looked at Huffpost's charts for each state. Their charts are how I have figured my guesses for the last two elections. And strangely, they look just about good enough for each Democratic senate candidate, especially if you throw in a strong ground game, beginning with a huge effort to get wobblers to the polls early. If so, they should win by a better margin than the polls indicate. So that's why my bet is what it is. It's the polls plus 2% for the Dems.
no guts no glory, it makes perfect sense, straight line voting is at all time highs ... the problem for me is the polling indicates that stright line voting may fall sharply this time around.
The 2010 wipeout was a stright line event, it didn't matter if you were running for school board in San Francisco or Govenor Massachusetts, it was a bad day to be blue.
We'll see if it plays that way today, it certainly is plausible.
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