Basically, the long run trend is consistent. Trump does not manage to breach the 43% ceiling (which was 45% but he hasn't got close to it since last December). Clinton does not breach her 45% floor.
Barring a freak show in the interim, this tells me she wins by a minimum of 2% in the popular vote (and a maximum of 10% if you consider the 5+/-5% ruts). Huffpost shows her 5% or so ahead, which is smack in the middle of the range. You can add something to this number for her ground game. Possibly 2% net.
So I don't doubt she will win. But the polls in several swing states make it hard to say by how much.
I am going for a surprise. Using the interactive map software, 341 is my best guess.
Of the swing states, my predictions are:
Arizona, Iowa - Trump
Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio (surprise) - Clinton
I think Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are all going to remain with Clinton in spite of Trump' best efforts.
I could be a long way off. But this is how I read the trend lines.
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