I interpret all the data about early voting in terms of the parties trying to get the marginal supporters to vote first. So that Florida lump expresses the fact that both the Dems (and Republicans) were working on independents and swingable people from the other party, leaving committed voters to election day. This is apparently a key reason that Romney won North Carolina last time, so the lesson was learnt.
Since Clinton has a much stronger ground game than Trump, I think she has baked in her support amongst swing voters pre-Comey, wherever early voting is allowed (not sure if it is permitted everywhere but it is clearly permitted in many key states). So I suspect she has already won because the folks who are left to vote are brighter blue and probably untouchable. Polls don't really matter once people have voted.
This would also explain the weaker black vote. She will likely focus on turnout in that sort of demographic (as well as women, the higher educated etc) in the final days.
| 
