Lots of the states that are in HRC's column are not there particularly strongly (but state polling in some cases is weak).
If that is the case, if the race shifts significantly, then the firewall is:
Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
She could lose a lot of ground: OH, FL, AZ, IA, ME2, any glimmers of GA ... she wins if she holds PA and NC.
Similarly, if she is threatened meaningfully in NC or PA then things have shifted enough that all bets are off, so ...
PA: RCP +6.2, 538 +5.8, Huff +6.4
NC: RCP +2.5, 538 +1.9, Huff +2.3
The only thing that brings any of this into play is Florida, hold FL and she can lose both of PA and NC.
FL: RCP +0.4, 538 +1.1, Huff +3.6
The polls close earlier in NC, 7:30 eastern, something like a million votes have already been cast in NC. Obama narrowly lost NC in 2012.
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