He may never learn to respect women, but he will learn WE have the power!
Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump
By Nate Silver
A series of national polls released on Tuesday showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by margins ranging from 5 to 11 percentage points — except for the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll, which defiantly continues to show Trump up by 2 points. There isn’t yet enough data from after Sunday night’s debate to really gauge its impact, however. For that matter, the polls may not yet have fully caught up to the effects of the release on Friday of a 2005 videotape, which showed Trump making vulgar comments about women and condoning unwanted sexual conduct toward women. For the time being, Clinton’s lead is holding at about 6 percentage points in our polls-only model, which gives her an 84 percent chance of winning the White House. Clinton’s chances are 80 percent in our polls-plus forecast.
But while we’re in something of a wait-and-see mode, one demographic split caught my eye. That was from a Public Religion Research Institute poll conducted on behalf of The Atlantic.
It showed a massive gender split, with Clinton trailing Trump by 11 percentage points among men but leading him by 33 points among women. To put those numbers in perspective, that’s saying Trump would defeat Clinton among men by a margin similar to Dwight D. Eisenhower’s landslide victory over Adlai Stevenson in 1952, while Clinton would defeat Trump among women by a margin similar to … actually, there’s no good comparison, since no candidate has won a presidential election by more than 26 percentage points since the popular vote became a widespread means of voting in 1824. To get to 33 points, you’d have to take the Eisenhower-Stevenson margin and add Lyndon B. Johnson’s 23-point win over Barry Goldwater in 1964 on top of it.
The PRRI poll is an outlier for showing quite so large a gender gap, however. In the table below, I’ve compiled the gender split from all national polls I could find so far in October.1
There’s quite a wide range — with live polls showing a notably wider gender spread than online and automated polls. But on average, Clinton leads Trump by 15 percentage points among women while trailing him by 5 points among men. How would that look on the electoral map?
Here’s a quick way to estimate it. In the polls I cited above, Clinton is doing 10 points better among women than among the electorate overall.2 So we’ll add 10 points to her current polls-only margin in every state to forecast her performance if women were the only ones who could vote.
In addition to the states where Clinton is already leading Trump, that would put her ahead in Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas and the 2nd congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska. Clinton would win 458 electoral votes to just 80 for Trump:
more:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-women-are-defeating-donald-trump/
DO SOMETHING!
| 
