Looking at RCP, Clinton also looks to be leading in the individual states.
Of the "toss-up" states, CO (9), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20), NH (4), VA (13) and ME2 (1) all look like Clinton territory. That's 73 electoral seats to add to the 200 solidly in her column. 273 is a win.
In addition, NV (6), NC (15) and FL (29) are nearly even. She has the better ground game, so she probably wins in those states too on current polling. So add a potential 50 to her total if you wish.
This is about the best map he has. He still loses.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html