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Re: Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 5 points

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 12 Sep 16 4:27 AM | 74 view(s)
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(This msg. is a reply to 19591 by clo)
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They are both in their furrow, as usual. It looks like a five point race to me - and the numbers show this has been consistent for a year. He's never delivered a trendline figure in her range and vice versa. His best is 0.5% lower than her worst result. And the aggregation of polls which defines the trendline is intrinsically more accurate than any single poll. The only way he comes close to winning is if she ends up at the bottom of her furrow and he ends up at the top of his.

But then it is down to who has the better ground game. Which Clinton wins hands-down.

The media make a big deal of changing individual polls because it generates ratings. But so long as the furrows are stable, there's nothing to get too alarmed about.

If anything, his highs have declined, whereas her lows are stable.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 5 points
By: clo in ALEA
Mon, 12 Sep 16 1:32 AM 		Msg. 19591 of 54959

Poll: Clinton leads Trump by 5 points

By Eric Bradner, CNN
Updated 12:42 PM ET, Sun September 11, 2016

Hillary Clinton holds a 46% to 41% lead over Donald Trump among likely voters -- with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 9% and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 2% -- a new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows.

The survey found that Clinton's lead swells to 10 points -- 45% to Trump's 35% -- when the sample is broadened to include all registered voters, a similar margin to a Washington Post/ABC News poll the previous month. 

The overall results are a departure from a spate of recent public polls -- including a CNN/ORC survey released last week that put Trump up, 45% to 43% -- that show the race tightening in recent weeks.

President Barack Obama's approval rating is at 58%, the Washington Post/ABC News poll poll finds, his highest since July 2009. 

more:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/11/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-poll/index.html

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