Trump is still in his 39-44% rut. Clinton is still in her 44-49% rut. Meaning the scope of the race is between dead even and a 10% Clinton lead.
Trump's new team seems to be succeeding in moving him higher in his rut. But it is still a rut.
Clinton isn't declining in particular from the higher end of her rut, in spite of what we hear when folks in the news media select individual polls to tell the story they wish to tell.
So this makes it currently a 6% or so game.
Basically, Trump has not succeeded in being within two points of Clinton ever. To do that, he needs to be at the top of his rut and she needs to be at the bottom of hers.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Beyond polling, it also sounds like Clinton's ground game advantage may turn out an added 2-3% on the day. So even assuming even polling, Clinton wins on election day because she has the boots on the ground which Trump lacks, on the basis of current information. Of course, it is her team's job to ensure she remains high in her rut, as well as maintaining a ground game advantage, in which case Trump has little hope.
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