Msg. 19420 of 54959 (This msg. is a reply to
19419 by
clo)
Jump:
They are being generous to the GOP. Calibrating GOP and Dem races evenly, several of the Leans Republican states (eg Arizona, South Carolina) are in toss up territory and Indiana doesn't look Likely Republican to me - at best, Leans.
It's looking like a 5-10% race to me, all things equal. Then add a ground game differential.
Clinton Surges Past 270 Electoral Votes in NBC News Battleground Map
by CHUCK TODD, MARK MURRAY and CARRIE DANN
......
The significant changes in our map: We've moved Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Nebraska's one electoral vote (Omaha area) from Tossup to Lean Dem. (And you could make a good case for placing Colorado and Virginia in Likely Dem instead of Lean Dem with Clinton's double-digit leads there.) We've also moved Florida from Lean Dem to Tossup. (While Clinton is ahead there, her margin in the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll is smaller than it was a month ago.) What's more, Georgia moves from Lean GOP to Tossup. And we've changed Kansas and South Carolina from Likely GOP to Lean GOP. Our regular caveat here, of course: These designations are subject to change as we get more poll numbers and reporting.
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