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Re: Kasich delivers Ohio

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 22 Feb 16 1:44 AM | 71 view(s)
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Msg. 18183 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 18182 by DigSpace)

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what do you make of the theory that - ironically - trump has exposed the pealing away of uneducated republicans from the party? that is, the folks who have been coopted by the gop and lied to for years in order to get their vote. who really don't give a damn about conservative politics and just want a do-over in america.

in that sense, trump is a vessel for people who are expressing their rejection of the party from within.

in effect, the republican party is in the process of splitting.

i don't see any of the contenders putting it back together.

i'm still unclear who the educated republicans are as the well educated seem mostly to be on the democratic side.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Kasich delivers Ohio
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Mon, 22 Feb 16 12:09 AM
Msg. 18182 of 54959

I was only mocking up to super tuesday, I don't know what the calculator does after the 15th. Super Tuesday looks muchmore contested than the narrative indicates:
Super Tuesday
TX: Cruz (a solid 34%)
GA: Trump (33%, 538 gives Trump 41% chance, Rubio 37%)
TN, AL, MA just dont poll much
VA:Trump (at a very beatable 28%, 538 currently has Rubio leading at 45%)
OK: Trump (32%, cruz on his heels)
MA: Trump (40%, last polled around Halloween)
AR: Cruz (really just a 3-way)
AK: Trump (a Trump Cruz 2-way)
MN: Rubio (another 3-way)
CO: n.d.
Then following that is MI:Trump, FL: Trump (we'll see about that) NC:Rubio

And then it moves into winner take all, and I expect Rubio to be formidable at that point with others dropping out and most votes going not-Trump. It could easily be that when the delegates get to winner take all that Trump fails to win another delegate, miles away from the current narrative. Trump would benefit if it was the other way around, winner take all at first in a crowded field, proportional as the field narrows, and that is just not the narrative. My argument depends on Cruz getting progressively weaker. He's an a-hole, it will happen.


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