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Re: Kasich delivers Ohio

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 22 Feb 16 12:09 AM | 58 view(s)
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Msg. 18182 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 18180 by Cactus Flower)

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I was only mocking up to super tuesday, I don't know what the calculator does after the 15th. Super Tuesday looks muchmore contested than the narrative indicates:
Super Tuesday
TX: Cruz (a solid 34%)
GA: Trump (33%, 538 gives Trump 41% chance, Rubio 37%)
TN, AL, MA just dont poll much
VA:Trump (at a very beatable 28%, 538 currently has Rubio leading at 45%)
OK: Trump (32%, cruz on his heels)
MA: Trump (40%, last polled around Halloween)
AR: Cruz (really just a 3-way)
AK: Trump (a Trump Cruz 2-way)
MN: Rubio (another 3-way)
CO: n.d.
Then following that is MI:Trump, FL: Trump (we'll see about that) NC:Rubio

And then it moves into winner take all, and I expect Rubio to be formidable at that point with others dropping out and most votes going not-Trump. It could easily be that when the delegates get to winner take all that Trump fails to win another delegate, miles away from the current narrative. Trump would benefit if it was the other way around, winner take all at first in a crowded field, proportional as the field narrows, and that is just not the narrative. My argument depends on Cruz getting progressively weaker. He's an a-hole, it will happen.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Kasich delivers Ohio
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Sun, 21 Feb 16 11:07 PM
Msg. 18180 of 54959

I haven't seen the RCP calculator but does it take into account the fact that 18 states are winner takes all? This amounts to nearly 1,000 of 2,472 delegates.

If Trump wins a mid-30s percentage of the proportional delegates (500, say), he needs 737 of the winner-takes-all states. That looks very doable to me as he is leading everywhere I am looking.

This also undercounts Trump's likely haul in the proportional states as many disqualify candidates with a small share of the vote from receiving delegates, meaning those who qualify end up with more.


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