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Re: Kasich delivers Ohio

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 21 Feb 16 11:07 PM | 67 view(s)
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Msg. 18180 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 18177 by DigSpace)

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I haven't seen the RCP calculator but does it take into account the fact that 18 states are winner takes all? This amounts to nearly 1,000 of 2,472 delegates.

If Trump wins a mid-30s percentage of the proportional delegates (500, say), he needs 737 of the winner-takes-all states. That looks very doable to me as he is leading everywhere I am looking.

This also undercounts Trump's likely haul in the proportional states as many disqualify candidates with a small share of the vote from receiving delegates, meaning those who qualify end up with more.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Kasich delivers Ohio
By: DigSpace
in ALEA
Sun, 21 Feb 16 10:45 PM
Msg. 18177 of 54959

A definite vulnerability. His winning the Oval is not a given, I think him being the candidate is.

Can he play his flops back to the correct flop? Dreamers is very popular in the immigrant community (and to fiscal conservatives, and to demographically aware welfare statists etc). You can hear the plaintive wail ... "But what about the children???!!!"

I just don't know where the moderate PA voter stands on this, cause that is what matters.


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