I think Kasich will stay in the race at least until March 15, when Ohio nominates its Republican candidate.
If so, then he won't be pulling out until after the majority of the delegates have been selected.
Rubio is hoping to consolidate the vote amongst non-Trump, non-Cruz supporters. He needs Kasich's voting block (it's a small block but enough to push Rubio above Cruz). I don't think he gets it until after Ohio.
By March 15th, assuming Kasich stays in the race, I think Trump likely has things locked up.
The other reason I see Trump winning is that Rubio just isn't that appealing. If he can't win South Carolina, where is there a better state for him?
But maybe I am missing something. Clearly a lot of folks find him appealing. I just find exposure to him irritating. He's fluent because he doesn't bother to think. That is why he was robotic. There's nothing in that noggin. Not a single doubt or question.