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Re: Silver has Trump pulling away in IA.

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 31 Jan 16 3:03 PM | 88 view(s)
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Msg. 18030 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 18028 by Cactus Flower)

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Much crazier things have happened.

NH likes to offer up a different choice than IA, perhaps part of why hisorical polling indicates most NHers decide in the last 7 days.

If Trump bags IA and Rubio comes in with say 17%, then NH could flip in a week.

Rubio like others has been caught flat footed by Trump, but anything high teens will get the upstart narrative going.

My Rubio thing is largely about what I fear most, I think he could/would beat HRC, but not Trump, Cruz or Jeb.

January polls are full of all sorts of people who don't win nominations and don't become Presidents, but winning *both* IA and NH is formidable in historical terms.

Trump just polls so poorly in second choice polling that when the field begins to narrow the polling suggests everybody *but* him will benefit.



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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Silver has Trump pulling away in IA.
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Sun, 31 Jan 16 9:09 AM
Msg. 18028 of 54959

Rubio?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary


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