hmmm, food for thought, I haven't methodically challenged my belief that there is broad discontent, and it could indeed be FZ spillover into e.g social media etc that gives me that perception. Certainly Obama has a poor apporval quotient, and my understanding was consumer sentiment as measured by those who do and "direction of country" type thingy's weren't particularly good, but I admit I have been lazy about observing the source of much of this.
But again, give the facts on the ground at the time it is puzzling that Gore-Bush wasn't a blow-out. The Dems have the two biggies in the bag to start with, can largely count on several others, and really need to win onlyt a couple contested battles. Ohio and Florida were frauds, I get that, but as in sports, even the refs can't flip a blow-out.
The country likes to go back and forth. Real wages have not improved. Total indebtedness continues to climb (much on the backs of the student loan debacle). Perceptions of fundamental saftely appear shaken. The opinion of government in all of its parts is poor. Many of the primary benficiaries of ACA are solid reds (e.g. Kentucky) and wil vote against their own interests with reckless abandon.
Swing states:
WI is moving back left, Walker has been a disaster, Johnson is as charismatic as a fence post.
FL will, in my scenario, vote for their own (Rubio).
Ohio won't trust HRC.
It may be decided in Pennsylvania. I have no take on Penn.
IA is a tweener, I suspect that HRC could pull it based on a weird mix od seniors (SocSec), pork bellies (Farm subsidies), and the fact that are actually liberal people in IA that like HRC. But Obama2012 minus FL/OH/PA is 265 >Rubio.
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