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Re: final day ev prediction 

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (2)
Tue, 19 Jan 16 8:55 PM | 90 view(s)
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Msg. 17965 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 11352 by Cactus Flower)

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ooh. alea's 332 wins. didn't remember this.




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final day ev prediction
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Tue, 06 Nov 12 3:02 AM
Msg. 11352 of 54959

wherever possible, assigning swing states according to state averages -

blumenthal at pollster: o 303 r 235

rcp: o 303 r 235

silver at 538: o 303 r 235

tpm polltracker: o 303 r 235

linzer at votamatic: o 303 r 235

sam wang at princeton: o 303 r 206 (no split for florida 29)

electoral-vote.com: o 294 r 220 (no split for colorado 9 and north carolina 15)

looks like strong agreement on the quantitative treatment of the polls pretty much. o 303, r 235.

now it is up to the ground game and voter enthusiasm for additional variables on the day.

i guess 303 is the most likely. i will stick with my outlier at 332 so as not to be conformist. hope mags bags nc for o.


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