hi dig,
i just don't see ohio as dicey. the only times i see it in play are the seriously dodgy polls. in general, it runs 2-4% o, like the others. but as it is so heavily polled, the margin of error is probably only +/- 1% at most
here's sam wang: http://election.princeton.edu/perverse-media-incentives-cillizza-2nov2012.php
the big story in my view is that the numbers are generally reverting towards the ones before Obama's September and Romney's early October.
Latest polls show NH is moving back to Obama:
New England College NEW! 10/29 - 10/31 1,017 LV 50 44 4 Obama +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/28 - 10/29 1,013 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 874 LV 49 47 5 Obama +2
Lake Research (D-USAction) 10/24 - 10/28 400 LV 47 42 7 Obama +5
Grove Insight (D-Project New America) 10/24 - 10/25 500 LV 47 44 7 Obama +3
New England College 10/23 - 10/25 571 LV 49 46 4 Obama +3
Small Obama advantage across most of the swing states. VA looks a bit stronger for o recently. FL is pretty much tied again. The only one moving slightly rightwards is CO.
In the national polls, which matter very little, 5 of the last 10 show O winning, 4 are tied, 1 shows Romney winning.
My only question now is, are the state polls as accurate as last time. If they are, O wins. Quite handily.
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