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Re: Very interesting.

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 19 Jan 16 6:00 PM | 104 view(s)
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Msg. 17952 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 17949 by clo)
Jump:

hi clo,

there was nothing magical about nate silver getting 100% right on the night last time. several other pollsters did too. actually i did also so the bar wasn't set too high. the polling made things very obvious especially once you removed rasmussen from the numbers (not so much a polling organisation as an organisation designed to skew the averages of the others). in the previous election, there were only two states in play on the night so again, it wasn't hard to get 48 right and the other two were a coin flip. (all of this assuming you aren't a fantasist republican pollster from romney's organisation).

click on iowa and new hampshire below:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-primary

as of today, you'd say sanders has a better than even chance in NH and a decent chance in Iowa. which makes things seem close.

but hc is still a long way ahead in the country.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

looks like bernie currently resonates in a narrow set of states.

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The above is a reply to the following message:

Very interesting. By: clo in ALEA Tue, 19 Jan 16 2:57 PM	Msg. 17949 of 54959
Very interesting. Take a look at the predictions on the right, for Iowa & NH. Remember, Nate Silver's predictions for all 50 states & the POTUS in 2008 were 100% on the mark. http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nbc-democratic-debate-presidential-election-2016/

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