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Re: Oklahoma has the most earthquakes, caused by fracking!

By: DigSpace in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Thu, 12 Nov 15 11:29 PM | 105 view(s)
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Msg. 17561 of 54959
(This msg. is a reply to 17557 by Down And Out Man)

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There is hope at least, we appear to have passed peak child for about a decade now. That is the number of humans on the planet under 15yr is pretty much flat at ~2bn.

Current trends are that we are rapidly (and more rapidly then essentially all estimates from the last several decades) towards a mostly vertical demographic with reasonable projections being that it will stabilize at:

0-15yr-olds 2bn (already so)
15-30yr 2bn
30-45yr 2bn
45-60yr 2bn
60+ 2bn

.... humanity appears to be heading to ~10bn, ca 2050 just to keep everything round.

So, at 7bn, one simply has to conceive of a world model with 50% more humans.

That is a lot, no doubt, but at least the picture has some boundaries now. Boundaries allow one to pull out an abacus.

Food. Food is mostly about distribution with a variety of folks coming in at something like 50% ... that is 50% of current annual food production is largely thrown out. So meeting the basic food requirements of 10bn people in 2050 is already happening (less problems with inventory control and distribution, perhaps AMZN and WMT could lend a hand).

Energy. Energy is obviously abundant (the sun pounds the crap out of the planet with energy every day). In this case it is a matter of harnessing and, once again, distributing. improvements in electricity generation and use are and have been rapid. Liquid transportation fuels, at the level we use them, while conceivable have not yet really realized any net gain/replacement vs. holes in the ground.

Water. Water is a concern. I don't like to think about the water thingy.

Air. Generally, we have overcome the largest threats to the atmosphere in terms of habitability (the partial pressure of oxygen remains adequate, the protective qualities of the atmosphere are recovering, we are adept at mitigating point source aberrations when so inclined).

Global warming is going to screw with these things a good deal, were it not for that the path forward is all largely extant or in reach. It is global warming that makes the next 50yr a real crap shoot.

Over the last few decades what has been wrong is population modeling, energy modeling, food production modeling ... what has been largely correct is global climate modeling. The oddity being that Mr. Murdoch's media empire spins just the opposite.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Oklahoma has the most earthquakes, caused by fracking!
By: Down And Out Man
in ALEA
Thu, 12 Nov 15 9:48 PM
Msg. 17557 of 54959

Environmentally friendly and economically efficient energy resources are the end game.

Good luck with that, as our world population of 7 billion grows at 75-100 million a year, coincidentally with several billion of them aspiring to higher standards of living, and the attendant increases in energy consumption.

Yes, I believe population growth is the root of all of the biggest threats to the planet, pick your "favorite".
And yet, it gets almost no discussion. But even if it did.........


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