Opinion: Trump, Fiorina, Carson will drop out of White House race soon enough
Published: Sept 23, 2015 6:01 a.m. ET
Three candidates with a legitimate shot at the White House — Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and John Kasich — will survive the brutal winnowing process in the Republican presidential campaign.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Americans have not elected a non-politician president in modern times — with the exception of Dwight Eisenhower, who won World War II — and they’re not going to do so in 2016.
So the winnowing of the Republican field of more than a dozen candidates, which has already started at the bottom, will inevitably claim the three non-politician candidates currently polling at the top of the pack — perhaps even before the first primary contest in February.
Donald Trump’s shtick is already fading and many commentators noted after his fumbling performance in the primary debate last week that he doesn’t seem to have a second act beyond his bullying and blustering.
His main contribution at the end of the day may be to discredit Carly Fiorina, a failed corporate CEO whose record in business will not survive the scrutiny her new prominence will bring.
At the same time, Trump’s unfiltered bombast is exposing the misogyny and racism better cloaked in the rhetoric of Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz while occupying their space and squeezing out their support.
Ben Carson will enjoy his 15 minutes of fame and go the way of Herman Cain, Steve Forbes and all the others whose success in their chosen field does nothing to qualify them for our nation’s top political post.
At the bottom of the list, meanwhile, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and his new pair of glasses bowed out, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker — who deserves the same label of flimflam man that economist Paul Krugman likes to apply to his fellow Wisconsinite, Rep. Paul Ryan — did the first sensible thing in his political career and withdrew from the race.
This will leave the path to the nomination much clearer for the three candidates who have a real claim on the White House and who could conceivably win a general election — Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich.
Yes, Jeb Bush, who, when all is said and done, has a much better chance of rebooting his campaign and overcoming his early stumbles than Hillary Clinton does.
With his strong debate performances, Rubio is making the best of his opportunity to be the second Barack Obama — an inexperienced first-term senator who nonetheless is possessed of charisma and the momentum of an historic breakthrough in a country with a growing Latino population.
And Kasich, the dark horse, who combines in a quirky way qualities many Republicans find appealing — a fundamentalist Christian faith and a firmly conservative stance that is nonetheless pragmatic.
In his hasty retreat this week, Walker urged other Republican hopefuls polling badly to withdraw as well, so that the party could begin to coalesce around a candidate not named Trump.
If those polling less than 1% — Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki — would heed his advice, the remaining candidates should all be able to appear on the same stage at the next debate.
Some of the other candidates may stay longer even if they clearly have no chance.
Rand Paul has opted to follow the example of his father, former Texas Rep. Ron Paul, and remain at the margins of the mainstream in order to champion his libertarian ideas.
Chris Christie may be the only person who hasn’t realized that the media will continue to probe his scandal-ridden administration in New Jersey until he is forced from the field.
The Washington Post took the baton this week with a long report about Christie installing a head of the state National Guard who is fostering what critics call a “toxic” command climate rife with cronyism and racism.
Whereas it was clear that Newt Gingrich lingered in the 2012 campaign so he could sell his books, it’s hard to discern what might be motivating Huckabee or Cruz — a book contract? a(nother) television gig? a vice presidential slot? nothing better to do?
Bush in fact should be glad that Trump has provided so much distraction this summer as the former Florida governor struggled to find his footing.
When Trump finally does fold, the party’s flirtation with him will look like a final adolescent fling before voters settle down to the serious business of selecting a conservative politician who can win a general election.
Winnowing — an agricultural term describing the separation of the wheat from the chaff — has come to mean freeing a field of unwanted or inferior elements.
In their debates and sniping at each other, the Republican candidates are helping voters and donors perform the task fairly efficiently even as we watch.
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