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Russia in real economic trouble

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 23 Dec 14 6:31 PM | 36 view(s)
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Potentates everywhere complain that it ain't what it used to be.

This is the cost of invading your neighbour these days.

"As the buying frenzy subsides, the eerie stillness of depression may instead take hold. The central bank says the economy could contract by 4.7pc next year if oil prices settle at $60 a barrel, but that was before the rate shock. BNP Paribas says each 100-basis point rise cuts 0.8pc off GDP a year later. Rates have risen 750 points in a week.

It was also before President Vladimir Putin disclosed his second line of defence. “We must squeeze rouble liquidity to stabilise the currency. We mustn’t waste our foreign exchange reserves thoughtlessly,” he says. This means driving the MosPrime (Libor) rates to 30pc. Those borrowing to “short” the rouble are crushed, but so are Russian banks.

“It’s going to be worse than the default crisis in 1998. This time you have a situation where the West is against them,” says Browder. “Russian companies are shut out of the global capital markets. The country can’t turn to the IMF because Washington will block it. There is no lender of last resort.”"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11305146/The-week-the-dam-broke-in-Russia-and-ended-Putins-dreams.html


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