i think o has been very lucky so far with putin as sanctions alone were not biting very hard.
the sanctions made o appear weak again (just as he also appeared weak over the syrian red line, which probably emboldened putin in the first place).
i kinda get that o is a strangler and not a boxer. boxers, like putin, perceive him to be a non-combatant. whereas in fact he slowly asphyxiates his opponents.
the oil price collapse has upped the risk and putin will think of some way to double down - as he does.
it's likely to be a military thing. i doubt he will attack nato head on. but he will be behind something.